On the first anniversary of the war in Ukraine, Joe Biden was in Ukraine pledging another $500 Million to the cause. As American capabilities and reserves are dwindling, Biden seems hell-bent on dragging the US and NATO into World War III, but I digress.
At the start of this war, which was clearly started by Russia, the US was deeply engaged with training the Ukrainian Army.
The Florida National Guard were serving as the trainers and they had to be evacuated to Poland at the onset of the Russian invasion. The training was being conducted on advanced anti-armor and air defense weapons and small unit tactics; and by all accounts, the Florida National Guard did a really good job.
As a result, there can be no doubt that the Ukrainian military did an excellent job on punching the Russians right in the chops and hurt them really bad in the first round.
But it is important to understand all the dynamics in play here … despite all the cheerleading that you see and hear regarding the “preservation of democracy” and the need to keep pouring US treasure into this fight, some $100 Billion to date … despite all the HIMARS and HAWK batteries …
… the US delivers and all the JAVLINS that are fired at Russian tanks … despite all the 155mm artillery that the US provides or the 31 M1 Main Battle Tanks that the US puts into the fight …
… despite all of this, the enemy is Russia and there is no recognizable way that the Ukraine military can defeat them on the battlefield. Allow me to explain.
In a war of attrition, Ukraine runs out of people long before Russia does. Even given the personnel problems that we hear about existing in the Russian military ranks, the Russians are still fighting and in fact, this week, they have been advancing against the Ukraine fighters. In a war of maneuver, unfortunately, you get the same result --- the Russian military has only dipped into one half of their available resources, tanks, planes, and let’s not forget the never-ending supply of explosive drones being supplied by Iran. Some get shot down, but some get through completely destroying Ukraine’s electric grid.
And let’s not forget the absolute wildcard --- the Chinese supplying additional equipment to fully tip the scales for Russia.
So, this begs the question --- If Ukraine was to capitulate to Russia, after another year of utter destruction of their country, and their government flees the country in the face of an utter defeat, and Russia installs a puppet government --- then what happens to all the advanced US and NATO equipment that we are literally pumping into Ukraine daily? These weapons contain technology that is more advanced than most of what the Russians have been able to develop.
Who is tracking what equipment is being shipped in, what equipment has been destroyed or expended, what equipment is mechanically broken and in need of maintenance? Who is tracking all of this? It’s important because if Ukraine faces a complete defeat, the US will have an Afghanistan type of situation with regard to the equipment.
The US abandoned enough equipment in Afghanistan to allow the Taliban to become the fourth largest army in the world --- can such a thing happen in Ukraine? I believe that it is well within the realm of possibility. And if that happens, it is also within the same realm that, at some point, NATO defenders could be faced with battling HIMARS, US artillery, and advanced M1 tanks in the hands of the Russian military.
There are a few in Congress who, as good stewards of the taxpayers’ money, are questioning the entire strategy of the support being given to Ukraine. Unfortunately, there are many more cheerleaders … starting right at the top with Joe Biden … who think this war will be the end of Putin. It may be, but that clearly comes under the headline: BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR… And remember, the Russians threw 28 million soldiers into the Nazi meat grinder in World War II and did not consider that a sacrifice to great … the 200,000 already lost in this war does not even get a raised eyebrow from Russian field commanders.
Now, let me be absolutely clear … I AM NOT ROUTING FOR THE RUSSIANS TO WIN! I would like to see the Russians get their butts kicked all the way back to Moscow. However, I was not routing for the Taliban to win either and yet, under the leadership of Joe Biden, I have lived long enough to see advanced US military equipment in the hands of our enemy.
So, that is the question: WHAT IF UKRAINE DOES NOT WIN? WHAT THEN?
Once again your analysis is spot on and I can’t disagree one bit with it. There is no telling how much intel our advisories has gotten from looking under the hood of equipment we left in Afghanistan and they would have a lot more if Ukraine does fall. Hopefully the abrams we send won’t have all if any of really hi-tech secrets.To say the least it is shameful but then again this administration has no shame.