As we barrel our way to the 2024 elections, now only 19 months away, the Republican Party is faced with a dilemma that it has not faced in a very long time, if ever. I speak of the conduct of a Presidential Primary that has a number of “front runner” candidates. One or more appear to lead the current polling across the country; but, the leading “front runner” may not be the candidate of choice for many. That candidate, of course, is Donald J. Trump.
This past week has shown many of us a number of things to look for as the calendar continues its march to November 2024. We have seen a circus surround the possible indictment of Trump by the Manhattan District Attorney, thus raising the question – Can the front runner for the Republican nomination be on the ballot if he is indicted? … And, if the answer is yes, can he assume the office if under indictment or convicted of a crime? Now … if the talking heads are to be believed, it appears that there is no Constitutional impediment to being on the ballot or assuming the Presidency in these situations. So, one way or the other, it looks likely that Trump will be on the Primary ballot with enough votes to propel him to the General Election in November of ’24.
So, what can we expect in the next 19 months and why will the results cause a dilemma for a significant number of Republican voters? To date, there are three declared candidates … Trump, Haley and Ramaswamy.
Still weighing their options are DeSantis, Pence, Pompeo, Youngkin, Sununu, Noem and Scott. And in the YOU MUST BE KIDDING column, we have Hutchinson, Cheney and Bolton. Despite not yet declaring his candidacy, Ron DeSantis is clearly number two in the polls and is the person that could take the winner’s circle in the Primary away from Trump.
And therein lies the dilemma.
Like it or not, the Republicans can anticipate one ugly Primary. It is not a secret that Trump will take on all who choose to challenge him for the nomination … and we can expect that he will savage them all as only Trump can. It will be a challenge onto itself just to keep up with the nicknames and negative attacks until, as happened in 2016 …
… most of the field withers and “dies” … leaving Trump and perhaps one or two others on the Primary ticket --- that is, candidates who are backed by the Party’s Megadonors like DeSantis and Youngkin. You see, it’s all about the money.
Now, imagine that the date is July 2024, the place is Milwaukee, Wisconsin, specifically, the Republican National Convention and its delegates are there to nominate their leading candidate for the November election with the goal of defeating Joe Biden, or whoever the Democrats run, and taking back the White House!
The Primary was hotly contested, the name-calling reached a new level of boorishness and Donald Trump emerged victorious. None of the backroom deals or Convention floor fights and challenges changed the outcome – Trump will challenge Biden for a second time.
And here is the dilemma! The Republican Party is clearly split between the “MAGA” Republicans …
… and the “NEVER TRUMP” Republicans.
Recognizing the “MAGA’s” clearly outnumber the “NEVERS”, it can be anticipated that when we get to the General election, the “NEVERS” will prefer not to vote for Trump … literally handing the Dems the win! BUT … what if something really unanticipated occurs and let’s say Ron DeSantis, with the backing of the Party’s Megadonors pulls out a Primary win, hangs on to his delegates at the Convention, and makes it to the General in November? What then?
I would anticipate that just the reverse of what we envisioned with a Trump win would occur if DeSantis were to win --- the MAGA Republicans will stay home – once again handing the win to the Democrats. Either way, it is shaping up to be a loss for the Republicans … UNLESS they are able to find common ground.
Since the pandemic, voting has become a real challenge. The Dems successfully accomplished getting the rules changed in many states, thereby making it easier for Democrats to win. Mail-in voting is a real issue and very prone to cheating. Voting machines, ballot-counters, ballot printers, voter ID, and a myriad of other issues plague the voters and their rights to vote in a country that was once the “Gold Standard” for the world.
Those days are gone and now Republicans need to focus squarely on what it’s going to take to win back the White House … not only in ‘24, but also in ’28 and ’32 … if their policies are to become institutionalized and reverse the damage done by Joe Biden in four short years. So, the last thing we need is a “food fight” with a bunch of sore losers refusing to vote.
Nobody knows how this is going to play out; but, if you have not given any thought as to your position on these critical matters, then perhaps it is time to do so. It is not too long before Primary season starts and it will be time to “GET YOUR VOTE ON” --- let’s work toward making it a win for whoever gets the nomination! It must be so because if the Republic is to survive, a Republican must take the oath of office in January of ’25 – the alternative is unthinkable.
“We Have Given You A Republic If We Can Keep It” … Ben Franklin on the adoption of the Constitution.
We Republicans have to hold our noses and vote for our nominee -- no matter who it is -- or Heaven help us. Surely it can't be too hard for Republicans, Independents, and disaffected Democrats to vote together to protect us against another 4 years of the same jaw-dropping incompetence. That HAS to be our drumbeat to each other all the way up to the election!