As the Biden Administration continues to seek an agreement with Iran, in an interview on Israeli TV last week, Biden again tried to make the case for re-entering the JCPOA, a deal from which Donald Trump withdrew.
His rationale --- It will allow us to better control the inevitable development of a nuclear weapon by the Iranian regime. The operative phrase here is “the inevitable development of a nuclear weapon.”
If the Biden Administration is as successful at controlling the Iranians as their “experts” have been at the economy, the border, crime and a myriad of other problems, we can expect a nuclear armed Iran to emerge sooner rather than later. Keep in mind that this is the regime that every Friday gathers a crowd to chant “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.”
So, what can possibly go wrong with them acquiring, testing and weaponizing a nuclear weapon?!
Let’s advance the discussion and assume that Iran will have a deployable nuke within 12-24 months …
… What should our strategy be for defending both ourselves and our allies in the Middle East who would immediately be threatened? Understand that it is not just Israel that is at risk in the Middle East. It is most, if not all, of the Arab states that adhere to the Sunni branch of Islam. The Iranians, on the other hand, adhere to and practice the Shia teachings of Islam. The two are mostly compatible, but a 1,400-year-old split over leadership of the religion, after the death of the prophet Muhammad in 632 A.D., has grown much more pronounced in the 21st century. As a result, countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are as vulnerable as Israel. So, the question is … how do we contain a nuclear threat from Iran?
My proposal would be to form a military alliance along the line of the European/American NATO Alliance. Now, I am not new here and I recognize that there has been great animosity throughout the region especially when it comes to the very existence of the State of Israel. That said, we have also seen what many said could never happen --- the Trump Administration, through the process called the “Abraham Accords,” was well on the way to achieving relations between a number of the Arab nations in the region and establishing the conditions for them to normalize relations with Israel. Bahrain, the UAE and Morocco have all normalized relations.
Saudi Arabia was well on the way when the election changed the dynamics: but given the proper incentives, they will also normalize with Israel.
Now, let’s assume that Sunni Arab countries are truly threatened by Iran and their nuclear arms program. I’m talking about Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain … which taken together make up the entire southern flank of Iran. On the north, Turkmenistan is a majority Sunni population and could also be enticed into a military alliance … an alliance that would not only protect it from Iran, but also from Russia who views it as a former Republic of the Soviet Union and would covet it back.
Finally, at the far corner of the map and just beyond the Middle East, there are India and Pakistan, both nuclear capable and both majority Sunni Muslim.
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Now, the shared motivation in forming such an alliance is the Iranian nuclear threat. That is where Israel comes in. Most folks forget that Israel has their own well developed nuclear weapons program … they just don’t talk about it much.
So, imagine an alliance much like NATO, but consisting of Israel providing a nuclear umbrella in the west; the combined ground forces of the other Arab countries along with the forces of Turkmenistan in the north; and a nuclear deterrence from India or Pakistan, or both, in the east. With rules like an attack on one is an attack on all, I would submit that Iran would have its hands full tactically defending itself. There is still an unsolved issue with Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Palestinians and Syria. All are currently client states of Iran and would have to be dealt with accordingly.
So far, it is an idea to ponder … but with some creative diplomacy, it could become a reality and as such, it would box in the Iranian regime. Make no mistake about it --- given a nuclear weapon and the means to deliver it, there is no doubt that the State of Israel is at great risk. The United States is also in Iran’s sights; therefore, any preemptive measure that we can take in conjunction with our Allies will enhance our own national security.
America did not listen to Joe Biden when he said he would turn off domestic oil production. The world did not listen to Vladimir Putin when he said he wanted to reconstitute the Russian empire. Perhaps we would be wise to listen to Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, when he summons a crowd – every Friday - to chant … Death to America … the price of not listening is unimaginable.