This morning, we were greeted by several disturbing headlines --- Our southern border is completely out of control. Title 42, one of the tools used by the Border Patrol, was scheduled to expire today with no apparent plan in place to deal with what was sure to be a rush to the border in its absence. (Note: this afternoon, the Supreme Court announced that Title 42 would not expire today, thereby rescuing Biden from his “no plan” plan.) Fentanyl has killed 107,000 Americans in 2022 and the drugs keep pouring over the border --- we catch some, but there is no telling what has gotten through. We have added another trillion dollars ($1,000,000,000,000) to the debt owed by our children and grandchildren … and the Commander in Chief is vacationing in the Caribbean like everything is all right --- BUT EVERYTHING IS NOT ALL RIGHT!
Headline in today’s Army Times: Can the Army fill its ranks? In an article written by Davis Winkie, we learn that … As the Army rolls along into 2023, everyone from recruiters to senior leaders to Congress are closely monitoring whether the Army will be able to shore up its recruiting and stem the end strength freefall that the service is currently experiencing.
The service experienced a shortfall of 15,000 recruits in fiscal 2022, which caused it to miss its congressionally authorized end strength by nearly 20,000 soldiers.
Just for comparison, our “peer enemy” in this instance is the Chinese Army. The latest numbers show that they have about 1.6 million active-duty army soldiers and another 2 million in their “reserve” units. In total, they have about 4 million ground soldiers.
The United States Army FY 2022 targets included: 485,000 in the regular Army, 336,000 in the National Guard, and 189,500 in the Army Reserve for a combined total of about 1 million. So, it’s China’s 4-million-person Army to the US’s 1- million.
As previously noted, the bad news is that the US Army experienced a shortfall of 15,000 recruits in fiscal 2022, which caused it to miss its congressionally authorized end strength by nearly 20,000 soldiers. The trend is clearly moving in the wrong direction and there does not appear to be a solution in sight. Most of Gen Z would be ineligible for military service without a waiver, per a Pentagon study. Obesity, drug use, and mental health are among the most common disqualifiers.
So, what is the response to all of this from the Army’s leadership? It’s not clear how the continuing decline in manning will impact operations, though service officials insist that the Army will be able to meet all of its requirements with fewer troops, indicating that a potential restructuring of brigade combat teams could help. Now, keep in mind that these are the officials that told us the Afghan Army was trained and ready to defend Afghanistan and we all know how that worked out!
“…meet all of its requirements with fewer troops …indicating that a potential restructuring of brigade combat teams” … Seriously?! I was in the military for over 20 years and often heard the words “DO MORE WITH LESS” … and I can tell you, from personal experience, that never happens. You can pretend that you are doing more with less, but the truth is that if you want to do MORE --- then you need MORE to do it with! … “a restructuring of the Brigade Combat Team” … for those not familiar, the Brigade Combat Team (BCT) has been the premier combat unit making up the Army’s combat units --- Infantry, Armor, Artillery combined, and all the support elements needed to sustain them on the battlefield.
So, what can fewer people mean? Well, when I joined the Army in 1966, a fully manned infantry squad consisted of 11 soldiers led by a Staff Sargent. Today’s definition of a fully manned infantry squad is 4 to 10 soldiers. We already see a decline in the size of the squad still led by the same Staff Sargent. For each missing soldier, there is one less rifle or machinegun firing bullets at the enemy.
In 1966, a tank platoon was defined as 5 tanks under the leadership of a 2d Lieutenant. Each tank crew consisted of 4 people for a total of 15 tanks. In the Army’s 2022 Brigade Combat Team, a tank platoon now consists of only 4 tanks … 12 tanks in the company --- resulting in fewer tank crews across the Battalion and the Brigade.
As an armor officer for over 20 years, I can tell you that nothing says victory like a tank company in the attack … unless there are not enough tanks to seize the day --- and it appears to be where we are heading.
So, why can’t we recruit the soldiers we need to ensure that we can defeat our enemies on the land battlefield? Some insights are provided in an article written by Wes O’Donnell, Managing Editor, Edge published by American Military University. He tells us that … only 29% of Gen Z are eligible for military service. Of those young people who are qualified, only 12.5%, the lowest number in a decade, shows any interest in the military. It’s the 12.5% number that is truly staggering and needs to be the focus of the Army’s leadership. O’Donnell went on to ask his own children, all Gen Z’ers, why they wouldn’t consider the military as a viable career option:
· One said she was afraid to die, (Understandable)
· Another said he didn’t want to die for no reason, (Getting warmer)
· And the other said he didn’t want to fight in a war that had no meaning. (BINGO!)
Makes sense, I suppose. Coming of age after 9/11, Gen Z is too young to know what real terrorism looks like. From their point of view, they simply see an endless rotation of troops to Iraq, Syria, Africa, and, more recently, Afghanistan.
So, what is the end game here? We will limp along with leadership that is delusional in their thinking that we can just do more with less. And if a war does happen, we will be forced, once again, to turn to the Selective Service System …
… forced conscription …
… to field an Army that is not fully trained, that is physically unprepared and that will be defeated on the battlefield many times before it reaches a state of training and readiness to defeat an enemy like the Chinese … assuming we can even get there.
While I have focused my thoughts on the Army, understand that the other uniformed services are suffering the same recruiting problems as the Army. Our “woke” Department of Defense is setting us up to lose any future war we might be called upon to fight in defense of our nation. AND the Commander in Chief --- where is he? --- well, he is enjoying a “well-deserved rest” in the Caribbean with his family at taxpayer expense because as far as he is concerned “all is well.”
Nothing will change until 2024. The question is: does the Republican Party have the intellectual courage to do what will need to be done to win at the voting booth? At this time, the future is not clear.
Spot on … but this Administration is the most lawless in the history of the country
Trying to understand the dynamics here. If SCOTUS can rule that Title 42 won't expire. Why can't they rule that we have to protect our border? Isn't that the #1 job of government? Are they just waiting for a court case to be presented to them? I really don't understand how it's legal to let this happen.